According to a new report published by Allied Market Research, titled, “Nuclear Bombs and Missiles Market," The nuclear bombs and missiles market was valued at $81.7 billion in 2022, and is estimated to reach $137.3 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2023 to 2032.
Elevated levels of nuclear testing empower nations to enhance their nuclear capabilities, encompassing the enhancement of design, yield, and efficiency in nuclear warheads. For instance, in November 2023, France successfully test-fired an M51.3 long-range ballistic missile, boosting the credibility of France’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. The technological progress stemming from these tests contributes to the evolution of more intricate and potent nuclear weapons, potentially fostering a demand surge for advanced systems within the market. Countries involved in nuclear testing may embark on modernization initiatives to revamp their existing nuclear arsenals. This process may entail the development of superior missile delivery systems, advancements in warhead technologies, and the integration of state-of-the-art features. Such endeavors towards modernization have the potential to spur growth in the nuclear bombs and missiles market.
A bomber is a tactical fighter aircraft that drops air-to-ground weapons (such as bombs), deploys torpedoes, or deploys air-launched cruise missiles on naval and ground targets. The segment refers to nuclear weapons that are integrated with aircraft bombers or short-range land-based missiles. These bombs have smaller blast radius and are mostly developed to ensure strategic superiority from neighboring nations. Land-based missiles are launched from fixed or mobile platforms on the ground. They follow a predetermined trajectory to reach their target.
Bombers are effective for long-range strategic deterrence. They can be stationed at bases far from potential conflict zones and quickly deployed to respond to emerging threats. Heavy bombers play a pivotal role in strategic bombing missions. There is a rise in the development of aircraft nuclear bombers to disrupt the capacity of enemies to conduct warfare by causing damage to critical infrastructure. For instance, in November 2023, the U.S conducted initial test flight of B21 raider, an aircraft bomber, signaling its progress toward becoming the nation's next nuclear weapons stealth bomber. The test took place in Palmdale, California, following extensive testing and development conducted by Northrop Grumman. The U.S. Air Force aims to manufacture 100 B-21 Raiders, characterized by a flying wing shape reminiscent of the B-2 Spirit. These aircraft integrate advanced materials, propulsion systems, and stealth technology to enhance survivability in potential future conflicts.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are long-range guided missiles capable of long-range. ICBM-powered, guided rockets operate at high speeds of at least sea level. It follows a ballistic trajectory after launch and is designed primarily to launch nuclear weapons. Moreover, it can also be modified to carry a variety of payloads beyond nuclear weapons. The U.S., Russia, the UK, France, India and China all currently deploy submarine-launched ICBMs. ICBMs play an important role in a nation’s strategic deterrence capability.
The possession of a strong ICBM system serves as a deterrent to potential adversaries, bolstering a nation's capacity to respond to aggression with substantial force. Countries frequently allocate resources to advance ICBM technology, aiming to fortify their national security by acquiring the capability to target distant locations. By guaranteeing the defence of their interests and deterring possible threats, countries can exert influence globally thanks to the ICBMs' greater range.
Missiles launched from submarines are known as submarine missiles or SLBM for short. Specifically designed for submarine launch, these missiles are capable of delivering nuclear or conventional weapons, for strategic nuclear deterrence from the sea. A country's ability to counter counterterrorism is greatly influenced by its submarine-launched missiles (SLBMs). In addition to strengthening the country’s deterrent posture, the ability to fire cruise missiles from submarines adds an important layer of complexity to its nuclear arsenal.
This feature adds complexity and unpredictability, making it challenging for adversaries to track and neutralize submarine-based missile systems. The survivable and less vulnerable second-strike capability provided by SLBMs strengthens a nation's overall deterrent posture. Ongoing progress in missile technology, propulsion systems, and submarine capabilities contributes to the continuous advancement of SLBMs. Nations actively invest in research and development to enhance the range, accuracy, and stealth features of these missiles.
The others segment includes all retired or reserved nuclear warheads that are awaiting disarmament or modernization. The implementation of non-nuclear treaties, coupled with the influence exerted by major global organizations advocating for the reduction of nuclear arsenals, stands as a primary factor compelling nations to diminish their active nuclear warheads. Countries possessing nuclear capabilities are redirecting their budgetary allocations. There is a significant shift away from disarmament efforts towards an augmented focus on research, development, and modification activities in the realm of nuclear technologies. This trend highlights a complex dynamic wherein nations navigate the delicate balance between global pressure for disarmament and their internal priorities regarding the advancement and adaptation of nuclear capabilities.
Impact of Russia-Ukraine war
Tensions in the continuing Russo-Ukrainian War, which started in 2014, have increased when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The ongoing conflict may trigger a reassessment of national strategic postures, potentially leading to revisions in nuclear doctrines and policies. Therefore, such reassessments may impact decisions regarding the acquisition, deployment, and advancement of nuclear weapons and missiles. The global repercussions of the conflict on security dynamics may prompt international organizations and alliances to address concerns related to nuclear proliferation. This response can involve heightened scrutiny, diplomatic initiatives, and negotiations focused on preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
KEY FINDINGS OF THE STUDY
- By type, the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the near future.
- By range, the 1,000Km to 5,000km segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the near future.
- By status, the reserve and retired segment is anticipated to exhibit significant growth in the near future.
- By region, Asia-Pacific is anticipated to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
Key players operating in the global nuclear bombs and missiles market include Airbus, ArianeGroup SAS, BAE Systems, Brahmos Aerospace, Lockheed Martin Corporation, MBDA, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd, Raytheon Technologies Corporation, and Boeing. The companies are adopting strategies such as contract, product upgrade/development and others to improve their market positioning.